H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator: Wage-Weighted Selection Explained (2026)

Omar’s manager forwarded a spreadsheet titled “H-1B FY2027 odds” with a column of invented percentages — 18%, 41%, 67% — color-coded like a sales funnel. The formula tab cited “industry average.” Nobody could point to a USCIS table that matched those numbers. Omar’s offer cleared OEWS Level II in Austin for his SOC code, and a competitor’s offer cleared Level III in the same metro. What he actually needed was not a fake probability — it was a plain explanation of how many times each registration enters the new weighted pool, and what integrity rules can yank that weight back down.

This calculator answers that narrower, honest question. Pick the OEWS wage level that applies to the registration; the tool reports how many times a unique beneficiary is entered in the selection pool under DHS’s weighted selection final rule — Level IV → 4 entries, Level III → 3, Level II → 2, Level I → 1 — effective February 27, 2026. Every result follows fixed published rules from the Federal Register text — not AI guesswork. You can review how we verify those rules on our Methodology page. Absolute “you have a 41% chance” graphics are marketing fiction without the live pool composition. Relative entry counts are what the rule actually gives the public.

What changed on February 27, 2026

For years, cap-subject H-1B registration felt like a pure lottery: when USCIS received more registrations than it projected were needed, each unique beneficiary broadly competed with equal weight. On December 29, 2025, DHS published a final rule titled Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions in the Federal Register (also available as a GovInfo PDF). The rule’s effective date is February 27, 2026 — in time for the Fiscal Year 2027 registration season.

The new process keeps randomness but tilts the pool. When random selection is required, USCIS conducts a weighted selection among registrations for unique beneficiaries generally based on the highest Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) wage level that the beneficiary’s proffered wage will equal or exceed for the relevant Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code in the area(s) of intended employment. Registrations assigned Level IV are entered four times; Level III three times; Level II twice; Level I once. Each unique beneficiary is still counted only once toward the numerical allocation projections, regardless of how many times that beneficiary appears in the pool.

How to read your result card

If you select Level II, the tool reports two pool entries and notes that is roughly twice the weight of Level I, all else equal. Level III is about three times Level I; Level IV about four times. Those multipliers are relative standing inside a still-random draw — not guaranteed seats.

The integrity caveats matter as much as the multipliers. When multiple worksites or multiple registrations exist for the same beneficiary, the lowest applicable wage level generally controls entries. Trying to game a Level IV label while the LCA and worksite facts support Level I is how petitions get denied or revoked later. Register the wage level you can document and pay.

Worked examples (with realistic compensation logic)

Example A — Same role, two metros. An employer offers $98,000 for a software role. In City A the OEWS Level II threshold for that SOC is $94,000 and Level III is $112,000 → Level II (2 entries). In City B the Level II threshold is $101,000 → the same $98,000 may only clear Level I (1 entry). Geography is not trivia; it is the weighting input.

Example B — Cleared Level III by $2,000. Proffered wage $114,000; Level III threshold $112,000; Level IV $135,000. Registration weight: 3 entries. Raising pay to $135,000 to chase a fourth entry is a compensation decision, not an immigration parlor trick — it affects payroll for the whole employment period the LCA covers.

Example C — Two employers register Omar. Employer 1 registers at Level III; Employer 2 registers at Level I for a lower-paid role. Under the beneficiary-centric / lowest-level integrity approach described in rule commentary, Omar should not expect stacked independent Level III and Level I tickets. Plan as if the lowest applicable level controls weighting, and ask counsel how multiple registrations interact in the current registration season’s instructions.

Example D — Cap-exempt research nonprofit. A qualifying university-affiliated research role may skip the lottery entirely. This tool’s wage multipliers are irrelevant to a true cap-exempt petition. Mis-labeling a cap-exempt case as cap-subject (or the reverse) is a category error bigger than Level II vs III.

Example E — Selected, then consular. Omar is selected at Level III. Employer files Form I-129. If Omar is abroad and needs a visa stamp, ordinary fees plus a possible $100,000 proclamation payment can dwarf the entire lottery conversation. Run the fee checker and total cost calculator before leadership treats selection as “done.”

Employee view, employer view, and edge cases

If you are the worker. Ask for the SOC code, worksite city, and the OEWS chart printout your employer used — not just “we’re Level III.” If you hold competing offers, compare wage levels honestly across locations. A higher nominal salary in a more expensive OEWS area can still land at a lower level. Do not pressure an employer to mis-state level; you will live with the petition consequences.

If you are HR or talent. Build a pre-registration worksheet: SOC, worksites, proffered wage, OEWS level per worksite, controlling (lowest) level, and evidence folder (OFCLC wage search printouts). Decide early whether a compensation bump that clears the next OEWS threshold is worth it relative to expected petition volume. Cap-exempt strategy, where available, beats any weighting multiplier.

Edge cases. Remote work and “roving” consultant models create worksite sprawl that can drag the controlling level down. Part-time or salaried-but-complex schedules still need a defensible annualized wage for OEWS comparison. Beneficiary-owners and related-entity petitions draw extra scrutiny after selection. Prior H-1B time and cap-counting history affect whether you need the lottery at all — transfers for previously counted workers are a different lane than first-time cap-subject registration.

What selection is not

Selection is not approval. It is not an I-94. It is not permission to quit a job that still anchors your status. It is a ticket to file in a window. Petitions still fail specialty-occupation RFEs, wage issues, and employer-employee relationship problems. Premium processing speeds adjudication clocks after filing; it does not repair a weak registration attestation.

If you are already in H-1B status and changing employers, you may not be in this lottery at all. If you just lost a job, the grace period tracker is the urgent calendar — lottery math can wait until you are stable enough to register in a future season.

Advanced-degree exemption, regular cap, and weighting together

Statute still distinguishes the regular numerical allocation and the advanced-degree exemption for certain U.S. master’s and higher degrees. The weighted selection rule changes how registrations enter the pool when a random draw is required; it does not erase the existence of those statutory pools. Practical modeling for FY2027 should include: (1) whether the case is cap-subject at all, (2) whether advanced-degree exemption eligibility applies, (3) the controlling OEWS wage level, and (4) post-selection filing path and cost. Skipping any of those four produces a spreadsheet that looks smart and fails in March.

How this page refuses fake precision — on purpose

Some sites will show a gauge that says “your odds improved 22%.” Unless they are using USCIS’s internal projection methodology and the live registration mix — which public tools do not have mid-season — that gauge is entertainment. We show entry counts and relative multipliers because that is the transparent part of the rule. When USCIS later publishes selection statistics for a completed season, those historical rates can inform expectations; they still are not your personal probability for next March.

A practical registration-season checklist

• Confirm cap-subject vs cap-exempt with counsel before opening the registration account workflow.
• Lock SOC code and all intended worksites; pull current OEWS wages for each.
• Compute the highest level the proffered wage equals or exceeds at each worksite; take the controlling lowest level for multi-site cases.
• Save wage-search printouts in the public-access / petition evidence folder the same day.
• Model post-selection cost with the total cost calculator; screen consular $100K risk if the worker is abroad or will travel.
• Brief the candidate that Level IV is not a promise — and that misrepresentation is worse than a lower weight.

Omar’s color-coded percentage sheet made leadership feel informed. The weighted-entry table made them able to decide whether to raise an Austin offer by enough to clear Level III — or to stop pretending the lottery was a sales funnel. Use this page for the second kind of conversation.

One more planning link across the Tools Popper network: once an offer salary and work state are real, candidates often ask what net pay looks like after federal and state withholding. That question is adjacent to wage-level strategy but separate from USCIS selection. Point them to the US Tax Tools paycheck calculator so compensation conversations stay grounded in take-home reality while immigration counsel owns the OEWS attestation.

SOC codes, OEWS charts, and the mistakes that show up in RFEs

Most registration fights are not about the multipliers — they are about whether the employer picked the right occupation and area. A vague job description that could be “software developer” or “computer systems analyst” can change the OEWS table entirely. A hybrid schedule with two days in a client city can add a second area of intended employment and drag the controlling wage level down. Print the OFLC wage search results the day you decide the level; do not rely on a Slack screenshot from last year’s season.

After selection, USCIS can compare the registration wage-level claim to the petition. If the petition’s proffered wage no longer supports the level used at registration, expect questions. If the worksite list expands after selection without a coherent explanation, expect more questions. The weighted system rewards higher wages; it also rewards documentation hygiene.

What “relative standing” means in a crowded Level IV band

If half the pool somehow clustered at Level IV, four entries would not feel like four times Level I in that specific season — because your competitors would also carry four entries. Relative standing is always relative to the mix that actually registers. That is another reason public percentage gizmos fail: they assume a stable mix they cannot observe. Your actionable levers remain (1) honest OEWS level, (2) whether you need the lottery at all, and (3) whether post-selection filing is fundable and lawful for the worker’s location.

Employers that respond by “Level-IV-washing” every registration will eventually meet integrity enforcement. Workers that demand a fake Level IV to feel safer will eventually meet an RFE. The boring path — correct SOC, correct worksites, payable wage, saved evidence — is the one that survives both selection season and petition season.

If you are still deciding whether to register this year or wait, put H-1B fee exposure and total petition cost beside the wage-level discussion on the same one-pager for leadership. A Level III win that triggers a consular $100K payment is not a win for a company that never budgeted it. A Level I registration for a cap-exempt role that never needed the lottery is wasted motion. Strategy is sequencing: exemption first, then weighting, then money, then filing path.

Registration season also compresses recruiting calendars. Offers that cannot state a worksite, SOC code, and payable wage by the registration window should not be forced into a speculative Level II click “just in case.” Conversely, waiting until the final afternoon to pull OEWS charts is how teams invent levels under pressure. Build the wage worksheet when the requisition opens, not when the USCIS account password is typed. Candidates deserve a straight answer about relative standing; employers deserve a filing file that will still make sense when the petition is due.

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